• Ben Finzel

Fearless Fridays Predictions - Volume 3


Hello and welcome back to our Fearless Fridays predictions. Before we offer a new prediction, let’s check in on Volume 2 from November 2017. We predicted:

Prediction 4:

  • President Trump will "split the difference" on imposing solar tariffs in the pending Solarworld/Suniva solar trade case by imposing a smaller-than-requested tariff that allows him to try to please both sides. In this way, he'll be able to claim that he's going after China and supporting the plaintiffs by imposing tariffs as well as claiming that he heard the concerns of the majority of the U.S. solar industry who opposed any tariff and imposed a much smaller penalty than he could have required.

So, how’d we do?

Prediction 4: Yes! Another correct prediction. On January 22, the President announced a new tariff on imported solar panels manufactured that was “less severe” than requested by the two companies that filed the tariff request with the International Trade Commission.

And special note:

Our first prediction (in August 2017) was that we’d see enactment of some form of carbon capture and storage policy by the end of 2017. That didn’t happen then and we gave ourselves an “incomplete,” but it has happened. On February 9, 2018, Congress passed and the President signed the 2018 budget agreement. That agreement included the provisions of the FUTURE Act introduced by Senator Heidi Heitkamp and 25% of the Senate last year. With the President’s signature, Section 45Q of the U.S. Tax Code which provides for a tax credit for captured carbon used for enhanced oil recovery was reformed and extended to include new uses and applications at a higher amount for a longer period of time.

So, we’re now 3-1 on our predictions (even if one of them took a bit longer than we predicted). Let’s try for 4-1 with a new prediction.

Prediction 5:

  • Instead of a comprehensive infrastructure package addressing a broad range of transportation, manufacturing, energy, environmental and related concerns, we’ll just see one single-issue bill enacted this year (e.g. limited transportation infrastructure language in the FAA reauthorization bill or a bill on transportation issues only).

How will we fare with this prediction? Watch this space for updates. We’ll follow-up with another check-in in the months ahead. And don’t forget to let us know your thoughts on our Facebook and LinkedIn pages or by tweeting at us @RENEWPRAgency.



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